Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.022336 2.140207 2.264075 2.404419 2.559597 2.726598 2.920815
2025-08-10 1.836852 1.998343 2.176097 2.387939 2.635786 2.919470 3.273048
2025-08-17 1.710397 1.894648 2.103786 2.361819 2.676067 3.052505 3.547519
2025-08-24 1.613536 1.812042 2.042751 2.335269 2.703253 3.161099 3.791704
2025-08-31 1.548478 1.759830 2.010613 2.336431 2.758633 3.302968 4.087166
2025-09-07 1.499324 1.722136 1.991481 2.349291 2.825930 3.461701 4.419167
2025-09-14 1.436091 1.662758 1.940664 2.316236 2.827491 3.528280 4.623022
2025-09-21 1.378788 1.607456 1.891266 2.280634 2.820979 3.580163 4.807174
2025-09-28 1.325105 1.554015 1.841134 2.240226 2.803542 3.612689 4.961857
2025-10-05 1.306312 1.543994 1.846324 2.274022 2.891856 3.807017 5.402428
2025-10-12 1.289313 1.535159 1.852056 2.307994 2.981662 4.010551 5.888261
2025-10-19 1.271450 1.524143 1.853881 2.335832 3.063335 4.207864 6.394433
2025-10-26 1.238320 1.492120 1.826436 2.321099 3.080477 4.303892 6.731213
2025-11-02 1.207270 1.461764 1.799979 2.306257 3.096133 4.398528 7.082254
2025-11-09 1.175033 1.428613 1.768177 2.281590 3.093958 4.461188 7.376933
2025-11-16 1.144690 1.397007 1.737250 2.256496 3.089009 4.517712 7.668066
2025-11-23 1.124539 1.378665 1.724239 2.257595 3.126658 4.654631 8.170590
2025-11-30 1.108997 1.366097 1.718820 2.269750 3.183142 4.832051 8.812898
2025-12-07 1.081215 1.335634 1.686516 2.238500 3.163268 4.859968 9.081930
2025-12-14 1.054095 1.305387 1.653575 2.204825 3.137084 4.872856 9.314698
2025-12-21 1.026902 1.274379 1.618628 2.166582 3.100697 4.861984 9.480696
2025-12-28 1.021105 1.273401 1.627592 2.198569 3.190605 5.118913 10.492704
2026-01-04 1.015564 1.272533 1.636533 2.230706 3.282815 5.392345 11.664484